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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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here to tell us is scott rasmussen. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> sean: let's go to first of all, 52-47 the battleground poll or your poll which today is two or three for romney. >> president has been around 47% ever since the first debate. president is trailing consistently among ins. different polls assign independents different ways but we see the independent voters leaning in romney's direction. >> sean: you and gallup, i watch you guys the most. we have battleground which i think is a credible poll. they have him up by five. it stayed that way for a while. do you see it going into election day? >> yes. the race changed after the if you are debate. president obama was ahead and 98% voters didn't change their mind but 2% switched in favor of homicidal. who is actually going to show up and vote is the question. our model suggests there will be 2% more democrats nationwide than republicans. that is not be quite as good as 2004. if that holds, it's going to be very close election, probably slight edge with gov
here to tell us is scott rasmussen. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> sean: let's go to first of all, 52-47 the battleground poll or your poll which today is two or three for romney. >> president has been around 47% ever since the first debate. president is trailing consistently among ins. different polls assign independents different ways but we see the independent voters leaning in romney's direction. >> sean: you and gallup, i watch you guys the most. we have...
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Nov 7, 2012
11/12
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he was interviewed and said about rasmussen. he's lost a lot of credibility, as far as i'm concerned. he did a lot of surveys. a lot of those surveys were wrong. nate, my question to you, is there going to be a price to pay in reputation fo rasmussen? >> i think so. when you underestimate the strength of aon being off by a few points. i think it's fine when it's three points but when you do 20 polls and all show obama doing worse by three. that's the case of rasmussen, who has an unorthodox system. they don't sample cell phone voters. there's just -- there are too different areas that could have been causing the errors. for when the error comes in to say, well, that makes sense. maybe that's not and we should take as seriously in the future. >> unorthodox is as smackdownx: my friend nate will deliver. stay tuned for the next block as we had to see what s.e. did because she t a week after superstorm sandy there's a nor'easter bearing down on the new york area right now. take a look at the scene from the top of the rock where high
he was interviewed and said about rasmussen. he's lost a lot of credibility, as far as i'm concerned. he did a lot of surveys. a lot of those surveys were wrong. nate, my question to you, is there going to be a price to pay in reputation fo rasmussen? >> i think so. when you underestimate the strength of aon being off by a few points. i think it's fine when it's three points but when you do 20 polls and all show obama doing worse by three. that's the case of rasmussen, who has an...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that? joining us now from boston, david. he directs polling. >> he want to run it down from your point of view. you have canvassed the whole country, know what's going on. ohio, how do you see it? >> i see it really close. if you look at the last four polls, it's one point. 1 through 8 the poll was average four to five points. what we look at is the head-to-head number. the last three consecutive polls, excluding the two you mentioned were at 48. that's a sign of vulnerability. obviously you have seven candidates on the ballot. i think those polls that had the plus four, plus five overs
president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that?...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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rasmussen they all have it "washington post" and down won the energy enthusiasm i have to make up for that. >> i can't image what these two men are going for. i have done the best i coulds in a great country. maybe we could >> i think they are both exhausted. we have another 36 hours to go. >> the romney campaign heads a sur vise. they say men's men's is in place? what do i noms think talk to themgic dick morris. he is here next. [ male announcer ] with 160 more miles per tank, the distances aren't getting shorter. ♪ the trucks are going farther. the new 2013 ram 1500. ♪ with the best-in-class fuel economy. engineered to move heaven and earth. ♪ guts. glory. ram. >> on thursday night last week dick morris went on the record saying governor romney will win by a land slide. two-days out does he stand by his prediction or did it change? what do you think? >> we are going to win by a land slide. it will be twill be the biggest surprise in recent american political history. it will rekindle the whole question as to why the media played this race as a nail biter. i think romney will w
rasmussen they all have it "washington post" and down won the energy enthusiasm i have to make up for that. >> i can't image what these two men are going for. i have done the best i coulds in a great country. maybe we could >> i think they are both exhausted. we have another 36 hours to go. >> the romney campaign heads a sur vise. they say men's men's is in place? what do i noms think talk to themgic dick morris. he is here next. [ male announcer ] with 160 more...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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but all of the polls i'm seeing rasmussen, they all have it even. washington post, mitt s down one. and the energy enthusiasm have got the to make up for that. >> greta: i can't even imagine what these two men are going through. >> well, you know, as i say you take a look at mitt and he looks like i have done the best i could. in is a great country. and it is in the lap of the gods if you will. and that sense, didn't you get that from watching him in the the closing remarks. he is very tired you can see that. >> greta: i think they are both exhausted and it has been a long couple of years. we'll see tuesday night. still another 36 hours to go. pat, thank you. >> thank you. >> greta: the romney campaign has a surprise and now says pennsylvania is in play. we will new numbers and democratic strategist joe trippi is here to talk about them. dick morris say said last week governor romney with win by a landslide. does he stand by thater prediction? he s up next. [ heart rate increases ] woman #2: but i don't even live near the water. what you don't know about flood insurance may shock yo
but all of the polls i'm seeing rasmussen, they all have it even. washington post, mitt s down one. and the energy enthusiasm have got the to make up for that. >> greta: i can't even imagine what these two men are going through. >> well, you know, as i say you take a look at mitt and he looks like i have done the best i could. in is a great country. and it is in the lap of the gods if you will. and that sense, didn't you get that from watching him in the the closing remarks. he is...
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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larry sabato pollster scott rasmussen. scott, what surprised you the most last night. >> the thing that surprised me the most was how precisely the obama campaign projected the white turnout. that was decisive. mitt romney got nearly 6 out of 10 white voters. most people thought that the obama campaign was being wildly optimistic that they could get the minority turnout to 28% of the vote but they did just what they said. >> bill: they got it to 28%. is that what it was in 2008? >> no, it was 26%. >> bill: they actually under their quo tent. >> under their quotient. not just the latino voters which you mentioned in the talking points memo but also they got young people to the polls. >> bill: youngsters didn't go for obama the way they did in 2008. he didn't get as many -- >> -- the story here is they did show up in bigger numbers and seniors did not. seniors were much more favorable towards mitt romney. basically the obama campaign knew who they had to get to the polls and they got them out. >> bill: did that surprise you,
larry sabato pollster scott rasmussen. scott, what surprised you the most last night. >> the thing that surprised me the most was how precisely the obama campaign projected the white turnout. that was decisive. mitt romney got nearly 6 out of 10 white voters. most people thought that the obama campaign was being wildly optimistic that they could get the minority turnout to 28% of the vote but they did just what they said. >> bill: they got it to 28%. is that what it was in 2008?...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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within the rasmussen margin of error. even the ground game to get out the vote looks like a tossup. the latest pew research study says across the country obama campaign reached 11% of likely voters. only 10% for the romney campaign. look at the swing state. the romney campaign has an edge to reach 14% of likely voters, only 13 from the obama camp. >> bret: carl, thank you. president obama switching things up a bit. for the final push. chief white house correspondent ed henry is with the president in las vegas. >> wardrobe change for president obama. flashing a bomber jacket from air force one to remind even he is still commander-in-chief for now. and while aides are also promising a change in message, with a new more positive tone in his final case -- >> our fight goes on because we know this nation cannot succeed. without a growing, thying middle class. >> he is still going negative on romney with the campaign today charging the republican would be rubber stamp for the right wing. >> he is saying he is the candidate of change. well, let me tell you, wisconsin, we know what change l
within the rasmussen margin of error. even the ground game to get out the vote looks like a tossup. the latest pew research study says across the country obama campaign reached 11% of likely voters. only 10% for the romney campaign. look at the swing state. the romney campaign has an edge to reach 14% of likely voters, only 13 from the obama camp. >> bret: carl, thank you. president obama switching things up a bit. for the final push. chief white house correspondent ed henry is with the...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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remember some of these averages include polls from biased sources, rasmussen and public policy polling but there is nobody i'd rather to speak to than the one woman who can make sense of all of this an tell us how it's going to play out tomorrow lynn la lake, penalty of the democratic consulting firm lake research partners. she joins us from washington d.c. linda, it is like christmas eve for political junkies. >> it's great to be here. you're right, it is christmas eve for those pollsters. >> it is so fun. how do you feel about tomorrow? >> i feel cautiously optimistic, but i think you had the most important story. we cannot let this election be stolen by people throwing voters away and throwing voters out. it's an outrage what's going on in states like florida and ohio. >> it is, and it's a marginal amount. if ohio is insisting on 300,000 people using provisional ballots and setting you will hurdles all of that makes a difference. what early results might predict who wins, what are you going to be watching? >> so the first state i'm going to be watching is virginia, which closes at 7
remember some of these averages include polls from biased sources, rasmussen and public policy polling but there is nobody i'd rather to speak to than the one woman who can make sense of all of this an tell us how it's going to play out tomorrow lynn la lake, penalty of the democratic consulting firm lake research partners. she joins us from washington d.c. linda, it is like christmas eve for political junkies. >> it's great to be here. you're right, it is christmas eve for those...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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according to a new rasmussen poll. i also think romney could win in colorado. but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney will win big. carrying pennsylvania and ohio, which would assure a romney victory. both morris and sabato will be on this program wednesday. again, i cannot make a prediction tonight. it pains pee. i don't like it. but i have to be honest. i can't do it. because even at this late date, some americans could still vote either way. both candidates still have a fighting chance. and that's the memo. next on the run down. the aforementioned carl rove will tell me how tragically wrong i am or something. and then, krauthammer, hume, powers, march will all weighen in n. on the fact t
according to a new rasmussen poll. i also think romney could win in colorado. but obama looks to have nevada locked up despite the awful unemployment situation in that state. our pal larry sabato teaches at the university of virginia is predicting an obama win, 290 electoral votes to romney's 248 if obama -- if obama is the winner, that tally sounds about right. but carl rove sees it the opposite way. mr. rove will be here in a moment. of course dick morris continues to maintain that romney...
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. >> rasmussen are much more encouraging to romney than the others. in fact, there are campaigns in this country today that hire two polltakers because they're not sure what they can get from one. >> george, there are 23 polls, 21 are in the president's favor. >> this is our first presidential since citizens united. we began with the talk of power money that was going to be unleashed. obama's campaign spends a billion. romney campaign spends a billion. >> concentrated spending. >> $5 billion over five white women in ohio. that's right. but, it has been very helpful to the tv stations. >> and 67 superpacs have sprung over the last 30 days. it's not making a difference. >> it could make a difference in the senate and the house races. >> and the reality is, you're going to see a lot of republicans come out and you're going to see enormous racial polarization in this race. 40% of white vote, in your poll this morning, 38 and 78. right on the tipping point. >> but, ron, i want to bring that question to matthew dowd. when you look at it and you see how soph
. >> rasmussen are much more encouraging to romney than the others. in fact, there are campaigns in this country today that hire two polltakers because they're not sure what they can get from one. >> george, there are 23 polls, 21 are in the president's favor. >> this is our first presidential since citizens united. we began with the talk of power money that was going to be unleashed. obama's campaign spends a billion. romney campaign spends a billion. >> concentrated...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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i point out two of the polls that came out today, rasmussen has romney up by one. gallup has romney up by one. the james carville rule is incumbents get the last poll. that would mean a 51-48 or 52-48 victory because in both those cases, you had obama at 48%. i think it's actually probably bigger than that. my personal guess is 53-47 or more. but secondly, let's look at what happened in new jersey and new york. i think if the vote had been on friday, obama peaked on friday out of sympathy and now we've had saturday and sunday for people and now all day monday for people to realize, remember, the government that is failing on staten island is the government obama wants to deliver health care. so i think you are going to see a lot of people vote against a failed government as they watch the mess in the northeast. >> mr. speaker, it's been great talking to you for the last 18 months or so. we've had a lot of ups and downs but it's been always entertaining and interesting. i wish you and your party all the very best tomorrow night. >> thank you. >>> coming up, one of t
i point out two of the polls that came out today, rasmussen has romney up by one. gallup has romney up by one. the james carville rule is incumbents get the last poll. that would mean a 51-48 or 52-48 victory because in both those cases, you had obama at 48%. i think it's actually probably bigger than that. my personal guess is 53-47 or more. but secondly, let's look at what happened in new jersey and new york. i think if the vote had been on friday, obama peaked on friday out of sympathy and...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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i think if you look at rasmussen, gallup and a number of other pollsters out there, they all got it wrong. i think i was one of the few people on the right saying the polls weren't wrong and e vis rated by friends for saying that. at some point you have to realize the data's not lying. >> let me just say, i want to sort of unravel that a bit. we know gallup certainly didn't do too well all throughout, but cnn certainly got it right. i think you can say nate silver got it right. so there were some people out there who actually got it. >> oh, absolutely. >> so it wasn't everybody. but in some corners. paul, what do you say? >> well, it was mostly corners of the far right. erick was a lonely voice of the reality based conservative movement. this country has changed. you know, back when i worked for bill clinton in 1992, 20 years ago, it was the modern era, we had electricity and jet travel. 88%, 88 of the electorate that voted for bill clinton that voted in the bush election was 88%. that's dropped to 72%. and the republicans are going to have to adapt. we covered all those primaries, erick
i think if you look at rasmussen, gallup and a number of other pollsters out there, they all got it wrong. i think i was one of the few people on the right saying the polls weren't wrong and e vis rated by friends for saying that. at some point you have to realize the data's not lying. >> let me just say, i want to sort of unravel that a bit. we know gallup certainly didn't do too well all throughout, but cnn certainly got it right. i think you can say nate silver got it right. so there...
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Nov 26, 2012
11/12
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why don't you quote rasmussen more? and joe, you're wrong. you're a socialist marxist, blah, blah, blah. it's like most of them have gotten the memo. they were lied to by pollsters. >> what are the liberals mad at you about? >> everything. >> what are they yelling about? >> well, they're mad because i wrote a blog saying hey, read steve rattner's column yesterday. >> see, that gets them mad. >> they're mad, rattner is a democrat. >> no, he's a plutocrat. they don't like them. >> we're still going back to spreadsheets. they're just so angry. >> we have to devote an entire program, perhaps, to raising the question -- hopefully answering the question -- what did these people do before the creation of the twitter? >> they kicked their dogs. >> they did something like that. >> they kicked their dogs. >>> all right. coming up, house majority leader eric cantor will be here. also, "time" magazine's joe klein. nbc's political director, chuck todd, and bloomberg view's margaret carlson. standing by in the green room, chris "mad dog" russo is here to b
why don't you quote rasmussen more? and joe, you're wrong. you're a socialist marxist, blah, blah, blah. it's like most of them have gotten the memo. they were lied to by pollsters. >> what are the liberals mad at you about? >> everything. >> what are they yelling about? >> well, they're mad because i wrote a blog saying hey, read steve rattner's column yesterday. >> see, that gets them mad. >> they're mad, rattner is a democrat. >> no, he's a...